The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale

QUESTION

The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human
Service Agency for past four fiscal years:
20X1 $5,250,000
20X2 $5,500,000
20X3 $6,000,000
20X4 $6,750,000
Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted
moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving
averages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal
years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a
value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponential
smoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $6,300,000.
You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time series
regression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?
Moving average (5,500,000 + 6,000,000 + 6,750,000)/3 = $6 ,083,333 Weighted moving average (1*5,500,000 + 2*6,000,000 + 3*6,750,000)/6 = $6,291,667 Exponential smoothing For a = 0.9 0.9*6,750,000 + (1-0.9)*6,300,000 = $6,705,000 Time series regression y = 4,625,000 + 500,000x where y¦

is the expense and x is the year (last digit) y (5) = 4,625,000 + 500,000(5) = $7,125,000 I would utilize the time series regression, since there appears to be a linear tendency in the data.

ANSWER:

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